Crowdsourced model for determining maturity of emerging technologies.


May 2017
Readiness documentation is being overhauled:


Readiness measures how close an idea is to reality.

Most technologies evolve along certain vectors over time, like acquiring usefulness and receiving investment.

By determining common vectors of evolution, technologies can be compared.

Readiness models an imaginary line between science fiction and science fact.



  • To produce a quantifiable indicator of how close a technology is to manifesting
  • To estimate technological evolution as well as social acceptance of emerging technologies


  • To help people compare readiness of different technologies
  • To help people understand the rate of accelerating change


  • From the moment they are envisioned, all technologies are ready for others to build upon
  • Readiness tends to increase over time
  • After technologies mature as products, they are no longer emerging (next step in the life cycle)


  • By developing an open technological readiness model
  • By creating an open database of emerging technologies
  • By asking falsifiable questions to estimate evolution for distinct criteria
  • By subjectively attributing points to each technology

Potential uses

  • Common understanding of technology status
  • Decision-making for technology funding
  • Decision-making for technology transitions
  • Risk management


Readiness questions

Five vectors are measured
Technologies are  scored on growth along each vector
Point Scores are attributed on a human-readable scale


Mathematical Model

Point Scores are combined into a Final Score
Final Score is calculated as the harmonic mean of Point Scores
Harmonic mean is the preferable method for averaging ranges
Final Score indicates overall readiness in thresholds